Predicting crypto is inherently risky, relying solely on indicators is foolhardy. However, some tools can offer insights within a broader trading strategy. Don’t treat these as guarantees.
Moving Averages (MAs): While simple MAs like the 50-day and 200-day can highlight trends, interpreting crossovers (e.g., a 50-day crossing above the 200-day as a bullish signal) requires caution. Consider using multiple MAs with different periods for confirmation, and understand that lagging indicators like MAs can be significantly behind price action in volatile markets. Exponential MAs (EMAs) are generally more responsive than simple MAs.
Relative Strength Index (RSI): The RSI, typically using a 14-period calculation, can signal overbought (above 70) or oversold (below 30) conditions. However, crypto markets often remain in overbought or oversold states for extended periods. Divergences (RSI moving in the opposite direction of price) are far more significant than the raw RSI value; a bullish divergence, for example, can suggest a potential price reversal despite the RSI staying above 70.
On-Balance Volume (OBV): OBV tracks cumulative volume based on price changes. Rising OBV with rising price confirms bullish momentum; conversely, diverging OBV (e.g., falling OBV with rising price) warns of weakening momentum and potential reversals. Like other indicators, OBV is most effective when used in conjunction with other forms of analysis and not in isolation.
Beyond the Basics: Successful crypto trading needs a holistic approach. Consider incorporating:
- Market Sentiment Analysis: Monitor social media, news, and overall market mood for context.
- Chart Patterns: Identify patterns like head and shoulders, flags, or triangles to anticipate potential price movements.
- Fundamental Analysis: Research the underlying technology and adoption rate of specific cryptocurrencies.
- Risk Management: Always use stop-losses and position sizing to protect your capital.
Remember: Past performance is not indicative of future results. No indicator provides foolproof predictions. Backtesting strategies and continuous learning are crucial.
How does news affect share price?
Negative news hammers share prices, just like a rug pull in the crypto world. A bad earnings report? Think of it as a major exchange getting hacked – massive sell-off. Poor corporate governance? That’s like a DeFi project with opaque code and no audits – trust vanishes, price plummets. Macroeconomic uncertainty? Similar to a Bitcoin halving cycle’s unpredictable aftermath, it creates volatility and fear, leading to widespread selling. Unexpected negative events? Those are your black swan events, like a sudden regulatory crackdown on crypto, causing panic selling and cascading price drops.
However, unlike traditional markets, the crypto space often reacts *more* dramatically to news. The 24/7 trading, high leverage, and often speculative nature of many crypto assets amplify the impact of both positive and negative news cycles. A positive development, like a regulatory approval, can cause a massive pump, while a negative one can trigger a brutal dump.
Consider this: The correlation between news and price action isn’t always direct or immediate. Sentiment plays a huge role. News might be priced in already, or the market might overreact or underreact, depending on the overall mood and prevailing narratives. Fundamental analysis is key, but technical analysis, charting, and an understanding of market sentiment are equally crucial in navigating the volatility of both stocks and crypto.
How to predict crypto movement?
Predicting crypto prices is tricky, but not impossible. It’s like trying to guess the weather – you can’t be 100% sure, but you can improve your chances.
Technical Analysis: This is like looking at a weather chart. You study graphs showing past price movements, looking for patterns. Tools like moving averages (imagine a smoothing line on the graph) help show the overall trend. Chart patterns (like triangles or head and shoulders) suggest potential future price action, but they’re not guarantees.
Market Trends: Big news affects crypto prices. Positive news (like a new regulation or partnership) usually pushes prices up; negative news (like a hack or government crackdown) can cause them to drop. Following the news is key.
Historical Data: Past performance doesn’t guarantee future results, but it provides context. Looking at how a specific cryptocurrency reacted to past events can give you clues about its potential behavior in similar situations.
Sentiment Analysis: This involves analyzing what people are saying about a cryptocurrency online. Positive sentiment often correlates with price increases, while negative sentiment suggests potential price drops. This can be tricky, as it’s easy to find biased opinions.
Community-Driven Projects: Some websites, like Crypto All Stars (mentioned in the original response), provide analysis and predictions from experienced traders. While valuable, remember these are opinions, not guarantees, and do your own research before making any decisions.
- Important Note: No method is foolproof. Crypto markets are incredibly volatile. Never invest more than you can afford to lose.
- Diversification: Don’t put all your eggs in one basket. Spread your investments across multiple cryptocurrencies to reduce risk.
- Due Diligence: Always research thoroughly before investing in any cryptocurrency.
- Understand the project’s whitepaper (its roadmap and goals).
- Check its team’s experience and reputation.
- Analyze its technology and security.
How to avoid capital gains tax on crypto?
Minimizing your cryptocurrency tax burden requires a proactive approach. Holding assets for over one year qualifies you for the lower long-term capital gains tax rates, significantly impacting your bottom line. This simple strategy is often overlooked.
Crypto tax-loss harvesting is a powerful technique. By strategically selling losing investments to offset gains, you can reduce your overall taxable income. However, be mindful of the wash-sale rule – repurchasing substantially identical crypto within 30 days negates the loss deduction. Proper planning is crucial here, potentially necessitating professional tax advice.
Charitable donations of cryptocurrency can provide significant tax advantages. You can deduct the fair market value of the crypto at the time of donation, potentially offering a larger deduction than a cash contribution. Ensure you consult with a tax advisor to understand the specific implications and documentation requirements.
Gifting crypto presents another avenue for tax optimization, though the recipient will be responsible for capital gains taxes upon eventual sale. Careful consideration of gift tax limits and implications is necessary.
Don’t forget about self-employment deductions. If you’re actively trading crypto as a business, various expenses – software subscriptions, educational courses, and even a portion of your home office – may be deductible, reducing your taxable income. Accurate record-keeping is paramount in this area.
Disclaimer: This information is for general knowledge and does not constitute financial or tax advice. Consult with qualified professionals before making any decisions.
What is the main takeaway about Bitcoin forks?
Bitcoin forks represent a fundamental divergence in the blockchain’s consensus mechanism. A hard fork, the most impactful type, results in two distinct and independent blockchains. This isn’t a mere software update; it’s a permanent schism. The incompatibility between the old and new rule sets ensures that nodes adhering to the original rules can’t validate blocks generated under the new protocol, effectively creating a new cryptocurrency. This often leads to a “coin split,” where existing holders of the original cryptocurrency receive an equivalent amount of the new coin. However, the value of the new cryptocurrency is entirely market-determined and isn’t guaranteed to mirror the original asset. Key factors influencing its success include community support, the novelty or utility of the changes implemented in the fork, and wider market conditions. The process can be contentious, sparking debates about decentralization and governance, as seen with Bitcoin Cash (BCH) and Bitcoin SV (BSV), notable examples born from Bitcoin hard forks. Understanding the implications of hard forks is critical for anyone navigating the volatile world of cryptocurrencies.
What is the best crypto predictor?
Finding the best cryptocurrency price predictor is a holy grail for many, and while no method guarantees perfect accuracy, research points towards promising avenues. A study by Khedr et al. (2021) highlighted Long Short-Term Memory networks (LSTMs) as a top performer in cryptocurrency price prediction. LSTMs excel because of their unique architecture; unlike simpler models, they can effectively capture long-term dependencies within time series data. This means they’re better at learning from historical price patterns to forecast future trends, a crucial aspect of crypto markets known for their volatility and complex patterns.
How LSTMs work: LSTMs are a type of recurrent neural network (RNN) specifically designed to address the vanishing gradient problem, a common issue in traditional RNNs that hinders their ability to learn long-term dependencies. They achieve this through a sophisticated cell state mechanism that regulates the flow of information, allowing them to remember important past information relevant for future predictions.
Important Considerations: While LSTMs show promise, it’s crucial to remember that even the best model is not a crystal ball. Crypto markets are influenced by numerous unpredictable factors – regulatory changes, market sentiment, technological advancements, and more. No model can perfectly account for these unpredictable events. Therefore, reliance on any single prediction model, including LSTMs, carries inherent risk. Diversification, thorough due diligence, and risk management remain paramount when investing in cryptocurrencies.
Beyond LSTMs: Other machine learning techniques, such as ARIMA, Prophet, and various other deep learning models, are also explored for cryptocurrency prediction. The “best” model often depends on the specific cryptocurrency, the timeframe of the prediction, and the specific features used as input. Ongoing research continues to explore and refine these prediction methods.
Data Quality is Key: The accuracy of any prediction model is heavily reliant on the quality of the input data. Using clean, accurate, and comprehensive datasets is critical for effective model training and reliable predictions. Inaccurate or incomplete data will lead to poor results, regardless of the sophistication of the algorithm.
Which crypto will give 1000x?
The question of which cryptocurrency will deliver a 1000x return is a popular one, fueled by the potential for massive profits in the volatile crypto market. However, predicting such dramatic gains is inherently speculative and risky. No one can guarantee a 1000x return on any investment, especially in the crypto space, which is known for its high volatility and unpredictable nature. While past performance is not indicative of future results, analyzing emerging projects can offer potential insights. It’s crucial to remember that even seemingly promising projects can fail.
Several platforms have compiled lists of cryptocurrencies with potential, often emphasizing newly launched projects. Examples include Solaxy (launched 2024), BTC Bull Token (2025), MIND of Pepe (2025), and Best Wallet Token (2024). These tokens are generally purchasable using common cryptocurrencies like ETH, USDT, BNB, BTC, Solana, and via credit card. The listed purchase methods suggest accessibility, but this doesn’t correlate with investment success.
Before investing in any of these or similar projects, thorough due diligence is paramount. Examine the project’s whitepaper for its stated goals, technology, and team. Assess the market capitalization, circulating supply, and overall tokenomics. Understand the risks involved, including the possibility of complete loss of investment. Diversification across multiple assets is a crucial risk mitigation strategy. Never invest more than you can afford to lose.
Furthermore, be aware of scams and pump-and-dump schemes. Many projects promote unrealistic gains, aiming to exploit inexperienced investors. Only invest in projects you understand, and always be wary of promises of guaranteed returns.
The information provided above is for educational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Conduct your own research before making any investment decisions.
What does sell the news mean in crypto?
In crypto, “sell the news” is a trading strategy rooted in the maxim “buy the rumor, sell the news.” This reflects the often-observed market behavior where positive anticipation (the rumor) drives price increases, while the actual release of the good news itself can lead to a price correction or stagnation.
Why does this happen? Several factors contribute:
- Profit-taking: Traders who bought in anticipation of the news capitalize on the price increase before the event, locking in profits.
- Disappointment: The news, while positive, might not meet overly inflated expectations, leading to selling pressure.
- Market manipulation: Large holders might strategically sell after the news to create artificial downward pressure and accumulate at lower prices.
- Technical factors: The news event could coincide with other market forces causing a sell-off regardless of the news’ content.
Effective “Sell the News” Strategy Requires:
- Identifying Catalysts: Pinpoint significant upcoming events like halvings, major exchange listings, or protocol upgrades that could trigger the “buy the rumor” effect.
- Timing is Crucial: Accurately predicting the peak of the pre-news price surge and executing your sell order before the news hits is vital. This often necessitates technical analysis alongside fundamental analysis.
- Risk Management: Position sizing and stop-loss orders are essential to manage potential losses if the market behaves unexpectedly.
- Understanding Market Sentiment: Gauge the overall market sentiment and avoid relying solely on the “sell the news” strategy in highly volatile or bearish market conditions.
Examples: A highly anticipated upgrade to a layer-1 blockchain might see price appreciation in the weeks leading up to the launch. However, once the upgrade is live and its benefits are confirmed, profit-taking often ensues.
How to predict which crypto will go up?
Predicting crypto price movements is a fool’s errand, but understanding the factors influencing them is crucial. Forget get-rich-quick schemes; focus on informed speculation.
Market Sentiment: This is the collective emotional temperature of the crypto market. Positive news drives prices up, negative news down. Look beyond simple price action; analyze social media sentiment, news coverage, and overall investor confidence. Don’t just follow the herd; understand *why* they’re moving.
Competition: The crypto landscape is brutally competitive. A project’s success hinges on its unique value proposition. Analyze the competitive environment. Is the project truly innovative? Does it solve a real problem? Or is it just another meme coin?
Tokenomics: Deep dive into the token’s mechanics. Inflation rate, token distribution, utility, and burning mechanisms all heavily influence value. A token with unsustainable inflation is a red flag, while deflationary models can boost value. Analyze the tokenomics carefully – it’s the lifeblood of the project.
Liquidity: High liquidity translates to easier buying and selling. Low liquidity means volatile price swings and potential difficulty exiting a position. Always check trading volume and the availability of the token on major exchanges.
Technical Analysis: While not a crystal ball, technical analysis provides valuable insights into price trends and potential support/resistance levels. Chart patterns, indicators, and volume analysis can help you identify potential entry and exit points. Remember though, it’s only one piece of the puzzle.
Fundamental Analysis (Beyond Dogecoin Case Study): The Dogecoin example highlights the impact of hype and community. However, sustainable growth depends on more than just virality. Focus on the project’s technology, team, roadmap, and adoption rate. Assess the actual utility and potential for long-term growth. Dogecoin’s success was largely anomalous; focus on projects with a solid foundation.
On-Chain Metrics: Analyze on-chain data like active addresses, transaction volume, and network growth to gauge real-world usage and adoption. These metrics provide a more objective view than price alone. They tell the story of what’s really happening underneath the surface.
Regulation: Government regulations significantly impact the crypto market. Keep abreast of regulatory developments, as they can dramatically influence price movements. Positive regulatory clarity often boosts confidence and value.
How long does it take for news to affect a stock?
The speed at which news impacts crypto asset prices is fascinating, and significantly faster than traditional markets. While studies on equities show positive news impacting prices in as little as four seconds, and negative news taking around ten seconds, the decentralized and highly liquid nature of crypto markets often leads to even more immediate reactions. This is largely due to algorithmic trading and the constant monitoring of news feeds by sophisticated bots.
High-Frequency Trading (HFT) plays a crucial role. These algorithms can detect and react to news snippets almost instantaneously, buying or selling based on pre-programmed strategies. This explains the incredibly rapid price fluctuations often seen in crypto. The lack of a central authority also contributes; information spreads rapidly through decentralized networks, further accelerating market responses.
Sentiment analysis tools are becoming increasingly prevalent. These tools analyze news articles and social media posts for sentiment (positive, negative, or neutral) and can predict price movements with a certain degree of accuracy. This technology allows traders to anticipate market shifts based on emerging narratives before the price fully reacts.
However, the “speed” is not uniform. Factors such as news credibility, the volume of trading, and the overall market sentiment at the time influence the magnitude and duration of price responses. While a significant positive announcement might result in an immediate and substantial price increase, a less impactful piece of negative news might have a minimal effect, or even be absorbed quickly.
Information asymmetry, still present, also plays a considerable role. Those with access to faster news feeds or more sophisticated analytical tools can potentially profit from early reactions, highlighting the importance of quick and reliable information sources in the crypto space.
Is a hard fork of held crypto taxable?
So, you got free crypto from a hard fork? Sweet! But the IRS considers this taxable income, unfortunately. Think of it like a stock split, but with tax implications. According to Rev. Rul. 2019-24, the value of those newly-minted tokens on the day they hit your wallet is what matters. That’s your taxable income. Calculate that fair market value at that precise moment.
Key takeaway: You’re taxed on *receipt*, not on sale. This is a crucial distinction from regular crypto trades.
Here’s the breakdown:
- Taxable Event: The moment the forked tokens appear in your wallet.
- Taxable Amount: The fair market value (FMV) of the tokens *at that moment*. This can be tricky to determine – you’ll need to find reliable pricing data from a reputable exchange at the time of the fork.
- Tax Type: Ordinary income – this is taxed at your ordinary income tax rate, which can be significantly higher than long-term capital gains rates.
Later, when you sell those forked tokens, that’s a separate taxable event. At that point, you’ll calculate your capital gains (or losses) based on the difference between your selling price and your original cost basis (which is the FMV at the time of the fork).
- Original Cost Basis: FMV at the time of the fork (this is your tax basis).
- Sale Price: The price you received when you sold the forked tokens.
- Capital Gain/Loss: Sale Price – Original Cost Basis.
Important Note: This is a simplified explanation. Tax laws are complex, and it’s always best to consult a qualified tax professional for personalized advice. Record-keeping is crucial. Keep meticulous records of all transactions and FMV data to support your tax filings.
How many times has Bitcoin been forked?
How do you know when a share price will increase?
Are forks always good in crypto?
Crypto forks are basically when a blockchain splits into two. Think of it like a company branching off – sometimes it’s amazing, sometimes it’s a disaster.
Good forks often introduce upgrades, improving speed, security, or adding new features. This can boost the value of the original coin and the new one (the “forked” coin). It’s like getting a bonus coin for holding the original!
- Increased functionality: A fork might add smart contract capabilities or improve scalability, making the blockchain more versatile.
- Enhanced security: Fixing vulnerabilities through a fork can drastically reduce the risk of hacks or exploits.
- Community-driven improvements: Successful forks often reflect the community’s desire for specific changes, leading to a more robust and user-friendly ecosystem.
Bad forks, however, can be a complete waste of time or even risky. They might be poorly executed, leading to instability or even scams. Sometimes a fork is just a way for developers to create a copy of a successful coin with minor changes, hoping to capitalize on the original’s popularity. This can dilute the value of both coins.
- Security Risks: Poorly coded forks can introduce new vulnerabilities, making them easy targets for hackers.
- Market Dilution: A large number of forks can split the community and reduce the value of all involved coins.
- Scams and rug pulls: Some forks are created with malicious intent, designed to defraud investors.
Bottom line: Not all forks are created equal. Always DYOR (Do Your Own Research) before investing in a forked coin. Look at the developers’ track record, the community’s engagement, and the overall technical soundness of the fork.
Does crypto go up or down with inflation?
The relationship between crypto and inflation is complex and not directly correlated. While a cryptocurrency’s *own* inflation (increased supply through mining or staking) generally puts downward pressure on its price – diluting the value of existing tokens – the broader macroeconomic inflation can impact crypto in several ways. High inflation often leads investors to seek alternative assets, potentially driving up demand for crypto as a hedge against inflation. However, this effect is not guaranteed and depends on numerous factors like investor sentiment, regulatory actions, and the overall market conditions. Furthermore, the narrative around a specific crypto project and its underlying technology plays a massive role; a project with strong fundamentals and utility might see less price erosion despite inflation, even with a growing supply. Conversely, a project with weak fundamentals can be heavily impacted by inflation, regardless of macroeconomic factors. The impact of inflation on crypto is thus multifaceted, and a simple up or down answer is insufficient.
It’s crucial to differentiate between on-chain inflation (supply increase within a specific crypto network) and macroeconomic inflation. While on-chain inflation is a factor influencing the crypto’s individual price, macroeconomic inflation drives broader market dynamics that can influence investor behavior and demand for cryptocurrencies.
Therefore, observing both the crypto’s inherent inflation rate and the overall inflationary environment is critical for any informed investment decision. The relationship isn’t linear; it’s a dynamic interplay of multiple forces.
How does news affect crypto prices?
Bitcoin, the king, shows a clear negativity bias. Bad news hits harder than good news on its price. This means a single negative headline can tank the price more than a positive one can boost it. It’s all about the fear, uncertainty, and doubt (FUD), baby!
Volatility is the name of the game. Positive news generally pumps up the price and trading volume (liquidity), creating bigger swings. Conversely, negative news often dampens both, leading to a quieter, less liquid market.
Think about it: a major exchange hack (negative news) will cause a massive sell-off and lower trading volume as investors panic. A positive regulatory announcement, however, might ignite a buying spree, increasing both volatility and liquidity. This is why diversification and risk management are crucial; you need a strategy to navigate these wild swings.
Beyond Bitcoin, altcoins are even more sensitive. They tend to amplify the effects of both positive and negative news, often moving more dramatically than Bitcoin. This is partly due to their smaller market caps and higher risk profiles, making them prone to bigger price swings based on news cycles.
Social media plays a huge role. News spreads like wildfire online, instantly impacting sentiment and prices. A viral tweet from an influential figure can send ripples through the entire market. Always be aware of the narrative and the potential for manipulation.
Fundamental analysis is key but news sentiment is a major catalyst. While long-term value is based on technology and adoption, short-term price movements are heavily influenced by the immediate news cycle and public perception.
How do you know when share price will increase?
Predicting share price increases with certainty is impossible. However, the fundamental principle is simple: price movement reflects the interplay of supply and demand. Increased demand, fueled by positive news, strong earnings, or broader market optimism, pushes prices higher. Conversely, negative news, disappointing earnings, or a general market downturn can increase supply and drive prices down.
It’s more nuanced than simply counting buyers and sellers. Market sentiment plays a crucial role. Fear and greed drive trading decisions, often irrationally. A stock might rise despite weak fundamentals if there’s widespread speculation of future growth. Conversely, a fundamentally sound company can experience a price drop due to a shift in investor sentiment.
Technical analysis can offer clues. Identifying patterns like support and resistance levels, trendlines, and momentum indicators can help gauge potential price movements. But these are not predictive tools; they reflect past price action and investor behavior, offering only probabilistic insights.
Fundamental analysis delves into a company’s financial health, competitive landscape, and management team to assess its intrinsic value. A discrepancy between a company’s market price and its perceived intrinsic value can suggest an opportunity. However, the market isn’t always rational, and even strong fundamentals don’t guarantee immediate price appreciation.
Ultimately, successfully timing the market is extremely difficult. While understanding supply and demand is a starting point, a successful trading strategy requires a holistic approach combining fundamental and technical analysis, risk management, and a deep understanding of market dynamics.
What is the most accurate crypto predictor?
Forget crystal balls; the most accurate crypto predictor isn’t some mystical oracle, it’s data-driven AI. Khedr et al.’s 2025 research points to Long Short-Term Memory networks (LSTMs) as the top performer for forecasting crypto price movements. LSTMs excel because they’re designed to handle the complexities of time-series data, picking up on long-term dependencies that simpler models miss – crucial for navigating the volatile crypto market. However, remember, even the best LSTM models are probabilistic; they don’t offer guaranteed wins. Factors like regulatory changes and unexpected market events can significantly impact price, rendering any prediction, however sophisticated, potentially inaccurate. While LSTM-based predictions can offer valuable insights, they should be viewed as one piece of a larger, well-informed investment strategy, not a foolproof crystal ball. Always conduct thorough due diligence and manage risk effectively.
What happens to my crypto in a hard fork?
A hard fork is a permanent divergence in a blockchain’s protocol. This means a significant, incompatible change to the underlying codebase, resulting in two separate and independent blockchains. One continues with the original protocol (often referred to as the “main chain” or “legacy chain”), while the other adopts the new rules. This often, but not always, creates a new cryptocurrency. The original cryptocurrency holders typically receive an equivalent amount of the new cryptocurrency on the forked chain, often referred to as an “airdrop.” This is not guaranteed and depends entirely on the specifics of the hard fork. The distribution mechanism, eligibility criteria, and even the existence of a new token are all determined by the developers proposing and implementing the hard fork.
Crucially, the post-fork ownership of your crypto depends entirely on whether your wallet or exchange supports the new chain. If it does, you’ll usually receive the equivalent amount of the new cryptocurrency. However, if your wallet or exchange doesn’t support the new chain, you’ll only retain your original cryptocurrency on the original chain. Supporting the new chain involves implementing updates to the client software used to interact with the blockchain. The support from the community is also important. A successful hard fork requires significant community support to validate the new chain and ensure its adoption.
There are various reasons for hard forks. These can range from implementing critical security updates or fixing bugs, to introducing major upgrades in functionality (like scaling solutions), or even stemming from ideological disagreements within the developer community leading to a contentious split. The impact on your holdings varies drastically depending on the circumstances. Before a hard fork, it’s advisable to thoroughly research its implications, ensure your wallet or exchange supports the new chain, and perhaps even move your assets to a secure, supporting wallet. The decision to support one chain over the other is often based on a combination of technical merits and community sentiment.
Do news headlines matter in the cryptocurrency market?
Absolutely! News headlines are HUGE in crypto. They directly impact market sentiment, which in turn drives price action. Think of a major exchange getting hacked – that’s instant negative news, potentially tanking multiple coins. Conversely, positive regulatory announcements or successful product launches can send prices soaring. It’s not just the headline itself, but also the source’s credibility – a reputable financial news outlet will have a much bigger effect than some random blog post.
Learning to filter the noise is crucial. Many headlines are clickbait or FUD (Fear, Uncertainty, Doubt) designed to manipulate traders. Focus on reliable sources and always do your own research (DYOR) before making any investment decisions based on news alone. Consider the context too – a single headline rarely tells the whole story.
Social media also plays a significant role, often acting as a rapid-fire news aggregator and sentiment amplifier. A trending hashtag can quickly influence market behavior, regardless of the actual news’ validity. This makes staying informed and discerning a constant challenge. Understanding how news cycles affect different cryptocurrencies is a key skill. Some coins are more sensitive to regulatory news, others to technological developments. A deep understanding of the project helps you gauge how much weight to give specific headlines.
